UNDERSTANDING ;

THE THIRD FORCE IN UGANDAN POLITICS

.This has been circulating in the political circles in Uganda for such a long time now. This has mainly been aided to the rise of the People Power led by Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi, that has not only caused the ruling party significant losses in by- elections such as Arua, Bugiri, Rukungiri etc, but also has got the masses pondering if this new wave of opposition is stronger than the mainstream opposition parties such as FDC,UPC and DP.

However, this is not the first time in the 56 year long history of Uganda , that is a "third force" in the politics of the country, some history scholars will argue that between 25/1/1971 to15/12/1980, the army was the third factor in the politics of the country, the governed the country and were not aligned to any political party i.e. they were not officially the ruling party and obviously they wasn’t any recognized opposition to their rule more less so in the country.

Fast forward to 2005, Uganda decided to engage in multi-party politics after a referendum that ended the one party system or the movement system. This made the 2006 general elections a truly multiparty election with the NRM, FDC,DP ,CP etc. all competing for various political positions in the country. Between about 2001-2011, Ugandan political climate could be characterized by 2 people; Dr. Kizza Besigye and the incumbent H.E Yoweri Musenvi. At this time, Besigye was the face and icon of the opposition and his battles with the security forces just increased his popularity as the masses saw him as the hope to end the Musenvi era. The 2011, work to work protests, where he and other activists maybe inspired by the arab spring, took to the streets to protest the high cost of living and his subsequent torture all made him quite popular. Am not neglecting the effort put other political parties in the struggle, but for instance, in 2010, the opposition came together under the inter party coalition and embraced him as the their sole presidential candidate and the same was done in 2015 with The Democrartic Alliance. My point therefore, was during this era, Ugandan politics was basically a two horse race ; the ruling party and the opposition championed by Besigye.

The Amama Third Force

In 2014, then Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, was sacked from his position. It was then later revealed that this was due to his ambition to stand for the NRM presidential candidature in the forth coming party nomination elections. With all his attempts to challenge Mr. Musenvi blocked, in 2015,he decided to form a pressure group or a political movement GO FORWARD. The Amama political storm swept all over the country attracting even opposition members tied to besigye`s camp such Hon.Beatrice Anywar. Mbabazi`s presidential campaign even caused divisions in Uganda’s oldest political party DP. The side backing Besigye mainly led lord mayor Lukwago degreed with the side of Nobert Mao that opted to support Go Forward. Amama had the resources, he knew the political game very well and surely this force was Musenvi`s greatest threat as of yet according to election observers of the time. Many people wanted Amama to join Besigye to form a join opposition candidature but there was failure of this to happen despite even the London meeting.This surely proved that this election was a perfect three horse race. just like any normal high tense election in sub Saharan Africa, each side did have militias , the government did have the bodaboda 2010, and some elements of the security forces, Besigye did have his P10, and Amama despite not having a organized one , did have a group of youth loyal to him and some even suggest some elements in the police. But as history shows,

the Amama third force phenomenon did even show fruit as it only gathered 1% of the vote. This mainly due to the fact that Amama much as he tried, the NRM legacy was still on his name.

Is people power is the real third force?

When then Robert kyagulanyi decided his intention to stand for the vacant Kyadondo East member of parliament seat. It was more than obvious that was on the opposition side. During the 2016, elections, he sang a song entitled Dembe , which UCC had banned and it was obvious he had angered some of those in power with his message. of free and fair elections. So initially his ambition was to join FDC, but the main opposition party had chosen Apollo Kantinti as their flag bearer and thus making Mr. Kyagulanyi opt to stand on the independent ticket. Bobi went on to win with a landslide victory much to the surprise of many including even his opposition counterparts. Once in parliament, he joined the mainstream opposition in most of their campaigns and projects such the togikwatako saga.

But the moment that led to the rise of people power, according to some was the Bugiri by- election, just like Bobi Wine in Kyadondo East, Asman Basalirwa was not part of the mainstream opposition, though he was the leader of the JEEMA PARTY. But with Bobi effect in play, he won by a landslide. Then the Arua by- election, again not only a people power backed candidate Hon.Kassiano Wadri win. But also the violence and torture that followed propelled Hon Kyagulanyi profile both at home and abroad. The Arua saga where even his own driver the late Yassin lost his life, was seen by many as a way the state was trying to crack down on opposition. It’s during this time, that the western nations usually the major donors to Uganda with exception of China,Japan south korea and Russia. The British parliament even held a discussion about the Arua saga with western news agencies such as BBC and CNN giving Mr. Kyagulanyi and his team much needed airtime to spread his message. Now in the eyes of the government, the had a new force that was not only popular among Ugandans especially the majority youth but had western backing and publicity. People power was no longer a small movement but now a national cause. Recently Hon Kyagulanyi in an interview with the CNN, announced that he and his team were considering running for president in 2021. Whether this is a right move or he needs more time to establish his electorate towards knowing that he is against the government and opposition. One thing is for sure. People power is truly giving both the government and the mainstream opposition a run for their money.