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AN INSIGHT INTO CHINA’S ZERO-COVID POLICY
By Rugaba John Paul
It’s January 12th, 2022, in the central city of Zhengzhou, Henan province. Most shops are closed, public transport is limited, mask wearing is mandatory, and community testing compulsory. This is the picture of the Chinese government’sapproach to the pandemic. It has also been referred to as China’s Zero-COVID Policy. When the last international flights left in March 2020, many thought they would return in a months’ time, but up to this day many travelers are still trapped outside. There are a few flights operating, under very tight restrictions.
The most affected by the international flight’s restrictions are the business personnel and the international students, with the latter even organizing protests. China’s anti Covid-19 measures were first introduced in the Wuhan lockdown of January 2020 which laid down the blueprint for anti-Covid-19 restrictions as the pandemic spread its way across the world. The big question however, is, why did the Chinese Communist Party choose this approach, and is it working?
Why the Zero-COVID policy.
To understand why, one needs to understand the criticism and backlash that the Chinese government received during the early days of the pandemic. The outbreak was at the time regarded as a Chinese problem, with some aspects of the global media referring to it as the Chinese/Wuhan virus (some still do, for exampleWION – an Indian owned international news outlet). As governments ordered mass repatriation of their nationals, the local population was angry with the government for its slow handling of the pandemic in its early stages. Unfortunately, a total of about 8,600 Chinese citizens lost their lives during the first 3 months of the pandemic. Fast forward to May 2020, the epicenter had shifted to western Europe and United States.
Amidst the chaos, China’s cases started to fall, and, in a few months, there were almost no more deaths in China. This was an achievement that every Chinese was extremely proud of. The efforts of extensive testing, extensive contact tracing, strict quarantine enforcement, closed borders had paid off and despite the global economy shrinking in 2020, the Chinese economy was the only major economy that stood its ground. As many western capitals were in flames-demonstrating over the Covid-19 restrictions, the Chinese system of governance ensured public compliance from top to bottom. The recurrent outbreaks of the delta and omicron variants are usually contained on an average of two weeks in the major cities, which is a milestone considering the ever mutating nature of these variants.
The Zero-COVID strategy works well for China compared to other nations given China’s centralized communist system of government that ensures all policies are followed from top to bottom in society, plus the internal large market that is able to handle the economic shocks of the pandemic. However, the Zero-COVID policy also provides an alternative to the anti- pandemic controls that some nations have undertaken.
Will the Zero-COVID policy be relaxed?
By February 2022, there has been no indication that the government would relax the policy, even though Beijing is hosting the winter Olympics. The Beijing 2022 Olympics will be held under strict Covid-19 regulations with no tickets for the general public, strict testing for athletes and a closed loop management system of the Olympic venues. The message is clear, China can organize a safe and secure Covid-free international event. That means therefore, the zero-COVID policy may not be relaxed soon. You would expect the situation to be different given the successful vaccine rollout. Many countries have used the success of their vaccine rollouts to relax Covid-19 restrictions, but China will not. China is using its home developed vaccines such as Sinopharm and Sinovac and it has so far administered about 3 billion doses with over 80% of the population vaccinated. However, experts argue that the vaccine’s efficacy is not strong enough (51%-60%) compared to other vaccines hence not providing enough immunity to reach the required herd immunity. Whether this is an excuse that the government is using to restrict international travel in order to prevent importation of new Covid-19 cases, no one is certain for sure.
The other, equally strong reason why the Zero-COVID approach may not be relaxed soon is the upcoming Chinese Communist central committee meeting in November, that is likely to give President Xi Jinping, a further term in office. The Communist Party and especially President Xi, want to end this term on a high note and project this achievement in containing the pandemic to his people and the outside world. Therefore, in my opinion, the most likely period of relaxation of the policy would be in 2023 or later.
Rugaba John Paul is a Research Fellow with Development Watch Centre, a foreign policy think tank.
